Bolster the peace camp [by Gershon Baskin]

The Jerusalem Post
posted Dec. 11, 2006

Bolster the peace camp
by GERSHON BASKIN

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1164881873112&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Chaos and uncertainty seem to surround us throughout the region.
Lebanon may be on the verge of a new civil war, likewise the
Palestinians. Iran is posing a challenge to the international
community that, at least at present, it seems incapable of
confronting. Iraq is disintegrating in sectarian violence and the
White House doesn't seem to have an inkling of what to do,
despite the sound advice received from the Baker-Hamilton team.

The Baker-Hamilton report on Iraq makes the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict seem a lot less complex and challenging than what the US
is facing in Iraq. The end game for Iraq seems a lot more
illusive than anything the US administration can seriously
imagine possible at this time. Furthermore, the path toward the
desired end game in Iraq is completely unclear, and each policy
decision made in Washington could lead to an entirely different
course of outcomes on the ground.

THE SITUATION in Israel/Palestine, in comparison, is much rosier.
The current cease-fire, although not 100% in force, the Olmert
speech in Sde Boker, the change of secretary of defense in
Washington and the Baker-Hamilton report have ignited new hopes
for some progress over here. Unlike Iraq, we all know what the
end game to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is, but like Iraq;
we have no idea of what process can lead us toward that end.

The Palestinians are entering into a kind of no-man's land in
terms of governance. The negotiations on national unity have thus
far failed and do not seem likely to succeed in the near future.
People around Mahmoud Abbas are pressing for new elections.
Others are pressing for the removal of the Hamas government and
replacing it with a technocratic government. Hamas, meanwhile, is
flexing its muscles on the street and around the Arab and Muslim
world.

It is clear that the current situation in Palestine is untenable
and negative for the Palestinians themselves, and for Israel as well.

Israel and those states in the region and in the world who hope
for Israeli-Palestinian peace must take action now that can
support the peace camp in Palestine led by Mahmoud Abbas. Those
steps are both economic and political.

THESE are some steps that could be taken.

On the economic front:

# Israel is holding more than $600 million in revenues collected
on behalf of the Palestinian Authority from customs and VAT
clearances. That money is vital to the Palestinian economy, yet
it is quite clear that Israel will not turn those funds over to
the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority. Recognizing that this money
is Palestinian money, and no one in the Israeli government says
otherwise, a mechanism must be found that will enable it to be
used by Abbas.

One suggestion raised by a former Palestinian minister in a
private meeting of Israeli and Palestinian business people and
economists was to place the money in an escrow account that Abbas
could use to borrow against. Abbas would then have the financial
resources to pay salaries to teachers, doctors and other civil
servants, and to cover debts of the PA to the private sector and
regain public confidence in his ability to govern.

# The plans designed by United States Security Coordinator Lt.
General Keith W. Dayton, including new technologies and the
deployment of Abbas's Presidential Guards, must be implemented
immediately in order to allow for the reopening and smooth and
efficient running of the Karni crossing, which is the main
lifeline of Gaza.

# A dedicated efficient and modern crossing for agriculture
should be established at Sufa crossing or elsewhere that would,
during the agriculture season, be open 24 hours a day. There is a
potential to create at least 100,000 new agriculture jobs in Gaza
immediately.

On the political front:

# Amir Peretz has it right - the Arab League Peace Initiative
provides the best basis for moving Israeli-Palestinian
negotiations forward. The supporters of this initiative in Israel
and around the world would be well advised to design a program of
public outreach and education to explain and market this
initiative to the people of Israel and Palestine.

# While negotiations for the release of Gilad Shalit are barely
progressing because the gaps between the sides are huge in terms
of both the quantity of Palestinian prisoners to be released and
the "quality" of those prisoners, an Abbas-Olmert meeting that
would end with a Palestinian prisoner release of significance,
not connected to the Shalit negotiations, would strengthen Abbas
at a time when support for Hamas is on the rise. Israel is
arresting tens of Palestinians everyday and the "bank" of
prisoners is full enough to allow for a "withdrawal" to Abbas
that would strengthen his assets.

# It seems that the dismissal of the Haniyeh government in one
way or another is inevitable. If the Palestinian internal
negotiations cannot produce a modus vivendi that will adhere to
the Quartet's demands, Abbas will have no other choice than to
take action - either elections, a referendum, or a temporary
government of experts, or something else. At that moment, the
internal situation in Palestine will become even tenser and
perhaps violent.

While there is no doubt to me that a Palestinian civil war or
civil strife will not serve Israel's interests, it is clear that
Abbas and his forces must come out on top, should it occur.

Israel should not interfere in any way that would delegitimize Abbas.

If Israeli and Palestinian strategists are not yet meeting in
secret to discuss these possibilities, they must do so
immediately. Allowing Abbas's troops greater freedom of movement
to deploy effectively now could make a critical difference at
some time in the future.