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Saturday, January 20, 2007

NEC January 2007 Poll of Palestinians

Near East Consulting

POB 4, Ramallah, Palestine T. +970-2-296-1436

NEC's monthly bulletin on Palestinian perceptions  towards politics and

Bulletin # II-1

In the period 12-15 January, 2007, Near East Consulting (NEC) conducted a
phone  survey of over 1212 randomly selected Palestinians in the West Bank,
the Gaza Strip,  and Jerusalem of which 823 were successfully completed.

It is worth noting that the margin of error is +/- 3.4% with a 95%
confidence level.

II. Main findings

A. Security and the internal situation:  ..48% of Palestinians feel less
secure since the January 2006 elections, as  compared to 44% in December

..The majority of Palestinians (91%) of the Palestinians are extremely
concerned  (56%) or somewhat concerned (35%) about the current situation in
the West  Bank and the Gaza Strip.

..18% are concerned because of the economic hardship that their household is
facing (compared to 32% in December), 26% are concerned because of the
general absence of security for their families (compared to 30% in
December),  while 42% are concerned because of the internal power struggle
(compared to  21% in December).

. 24% blame Hamas for the recent internal problems, 22% blame Fateh, and 54%
blame both equally. With respect to the security agency Palestinians blame
most,  30% put the blame on the Executive Force of Hamas, 15% on the
Preventive  Security, 5% mentioned various other security agencies, and 37%
blamed all  equally;

. 79% of the Palestinians believe that the Executive Force should be
integrated  within the other security forces;

. 50% think that the responsibility of the security forces should be in the
hands of  the president, 28% think it should rest with the prime minister,
and 23% believe  that is should be the responsibility of both: the
Presidency, and the government;

. 56% do not think that a civil war is likely (compared to 59% in December).
This is  probably attributed to the belief of 76% of the Palestinians who
think that the  crisis between Fateh and Hamas will end soon.

B. National dialogue and the future steps:

. 57% support Abu Mazen's call for presidential elections (22% strongly
support  and 35% support to some extent);

. 58% support Abu Mazen's call for PLC elections (23% strongly support and
35%  supports to a certain extent). In December, still 68% supported Abu
Mazen's' call  for early presidential and PLC elections;

. Despite their support for elections, 63% of the Palestinians believe that
such a  call will lead to an intensification of the current internal crisis.
Only 37% believe

. 53% of the respondents think that Abu Mazen is doing enough to end the
crisis  between Fateh and Hamas and a similar percentage (52%) think that
Hanieh is  exerting enough effort to end the crisis between the two

. 40% most trust Fateh (compared to 32% in December), 26% most trust Hamas
(compared to 27% in December), while 27% do not trust any faction (compared
to 35% in December). Fateh has considerably more popular support than Hamas
in the Gaza Strip (48% versus 28%).

68% of  the respondents still said that early elections will bring an end to
the current  crisis;

 ..51% believe that Abu Mazen should withdraw his call for early elections,
while  49% believe that he should maintain his position;

 ..In contrast, 94% believe that resumption of the National Dialogue for a
two-week  period is a good initiative and 72% believe that it will lead to
positive results;

..50% of the respondents believe that, if elections were held today, they
would  vote for the same faction as they did in the last elections, 12% said
that they will  vote for another faction, while 32% said that they will not
cast their vote in future  elections;

..The majority of the respondents said that they will vote for Fateh in the
next  elections (40%), while 23% said that they will give their vote to

..President Abbas seems to be the most likely to gain from new presidential
elections. When compared with other potential runners for the presidential
elections, 38% mentioned Abu Mazen, 20% mentioned Marwan Barghouthi, 18%
mentioned Ismael Hanieh, and 7% mentioned Mustapha Barghouthi. However,  20%
said that they will not participate in new presidential elections.

C. Factions and leaders:

..53% most trust Abu Mazen; 47% most trust Ismael Hanieh;

..71% do not wish Abu Mazen to resign;

D. The Hamas government:

60% believe Hamas has failed to deliver on its campaign promises because it
did  not get the opportunity, 14% think that Hamas did not utilize the
opportunities at  its disposal, 17% feel Hamas is incompetent, while 9%
think that the Hamas  government did not fail to deliver on its campaign

33% believe that the level of nepotism in the public sector has dropped
since  Hamas came to power compared to 29% who said that it increased, while
38%  said that it remained the same;

52% believe that the time did not come yet for the Hamas government to step
down while 48% believe that the movement should step down.

E. The Palestinian-Israeli context:

72% support a peace settlement with Israel, compared to 77% in December;

..56% believe that Hamas should change its position towards the elimination
of  Israel (a drop of 5% since December).

IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors. Originally posted at Please do link to these articles, quote from them and forward them by email to friends with this notice. Other uses require written permission of the author.


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