And on, and on, and on, goes the litany. I believe, based on facts rather than wishful thinking, that every one of the above assertions, as well as all other similar dismissive arguments are both false and fraught with danger, because all the above arguments are confounded by various amounts of denial.
Psychological denial is a common quirk of the human mind. People use denial to distort, even refute reality, when accepting it is too threatening for them. Alcoholics are habitual users of denial, a major tranquilizer of the mind. The alcoholic will adamantly deny having any problem with alcohol and continue to drink, even in the face of irrefutable contrary evidence. Denial is resorted to by both individuals and groups, and can be just as deadly for both.
Perhaps the most compelling dismissive argument is that the Mullahs would never dare to use the bomb, since it would be suicidal to do so. This argument is just as flawed as the rest. The "mutual deterrence" argument may work in state-to-state confrontations. It apparently has worked in the past and the hope is that it will work in the future. However, the mutual deterrence argument fails when a non-state entity is the adversary. The Mullahs don't have to lob a bomb at Israel or at anyone else to inflict huge harm. They can pursue their cause of death and destruction by simply providing their killers with dirty bombs in a suitcase. Given the Mullahs' fanaticism and Machiavellian nature, they would come up with a myriad of clever schemes to achieve their objectives.
Consider dirty bombs. They are easy to make, are portable, can kill as well as make a city uninhabitable, without leaving a "finger print." The Mullahs can go to work then turn "innocently" to the international community to help them find a group of rogue radicals who, the Mullahs could later claim, had penetrated their facilities and made off with a loot of radioactive stuff.
It is not as if events like this have never happened in the past. Deadly stolen radioactive materials have found their way to the black market on a number of occasions. The world would respond in panic, yet with its usual arthritic sluggishness, searching for the miscreants. Given how clumsy and disorganized the world's intelligence community is, the prospect of acting expeditiously, much less apprehending the "thieves" is not very encouraging. This is particularly the case when the Mullahs themselves would have a short leash on the "thieves," to hide them and deploy them only with the greatest of care.
Iran's ruling Mullahs are clustered around major factions such as the conservatives, the moderates, and the so-called reformists. Yet, the differences among these factions are tactical rather than strategic. One and all share the same overarching goals: defeating the "Crusader-Zionists" by any and all methods possible; bringing about the "end of the world" Armageddon; and, thereby creating the requisite conditions for the appearance of the "Hidden Imam", the Mahdi, to assume his rule of the world.
Therefore, it is Carterisque (foolish risk-taking a la Jimmy Carter's throwing the nation's lot with the Mullahs during the 1979 Iranian Revolution) to overlook the fact that it is Islam, irrespective of any and all considerations, that poses a deadly threat to the world. Choosing one faction over another is no choice at all.
What is the likelihood that the ruling Mullahs will actually use the bomb? If they remain in power long enough to have it, they are very likely to use it, in one form or another. At the very least, they would use the bomb for blackmail and intimidation in the region. Not even the all-out nuclear exchange can be ruled out. Islam is a religion centered on death with the faithful eyes fixed on the afterlife and its promised eternal pleasures. If the faithful kills, he goes to Allah's paradise; if he gets killed, he goes to Allah's paradise.
The Mullahs' claim of are pursuing the nuclear program merely to meet the country's energy need could only fool the most gullible-denial type. Why is it that the Mullahs invest nothing at all in stopping the leak of more than six percent of the precious oil they pump out? For every 100 barrels, six barrels of Iran's irreplaceable national treasure dissipates at the wellhead. Yet, they spend billions of dollars to harness nuclear energy. Just as troubling is the fact that Iran sits on one of the world's most dangerous earthquake fault lines. Building nuclear plants on sites such as the one in Bushehr is absolute insanity.
The Mullahs are proven vicious mass killers. They summarily executed tens of thousands of Iranian dissidents. They had no qualms at sending thousands of children to clear the minefields ahead of their tanks during the 80-89 war with Iraq; and, they have thousands of "martyrs" brainwashed and prepared to serve as bomb mules to be dispatched to any place in the world.
Sadly, once again it is the peak of "Me First" time with American politicians. Like sharks, they are circling the "bleeding" lame President, busily snipping at him and hoping to take his place. In the meantime the real enemy, Islamofascism is forging ahead toward its goal of dominating the world.
I have been warning that it is a deadly miscalculation to engage in infighting, and sit and wait out this emerging catastrophe. It is little more than an exercise in denial to believe that nothing bad will happen and that the corrupt, 'inept', Mullahs will likely shoot themselves in the foot instead of wreaking havoc on the world. I also keep pleading that we should forthwith help the Iranian democratic oppositions send the death-bearer Mullahs back to their mosques. It is the free world's best and most urgent option.
What sane person would want to take a chance to wait and see if the mad Mullahs, once they have the bomb, would use it or not?
Amil Imani is an Iranian-born American citizen and pro-democracy activist residing in the United States of America. He maintains a website, www.AmilImani.com