Peace Index Poll: January 2007: Israeli Arabs and Jews agree inter-Palestinian struggle is good for Israel, Israel should not be involved
http://zionism-israel.com/israel_news/2007/02/peace-index-poll-january-2007-israeli.htmlIsraeli Arabs and Jews agree inter-Palestinian struggle is good for Israel, Israel should not be involved
Peace Index: January 2007
Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann
There is broad agreement in the Israeli Jewish public that Israel should not
get involved in the present intra-Palestinian struggle. Views are more
divided, however, on what this struggle means for Israel, with a small
majority seeing it as beneficial.
Assessments also differ about the course of Israeli-Palestinian relations in
the coming year, with a slight majority saying the situation will worsen
rather than political contacts being renewed. As for the future of
Israeli-Syrian relations, here too there is no dominant view, but a slight
lead for the optimistic assessment that political negotiations will be
renewed rather than the situation staying the same, with only a small
minority seeing war as imminent.
However, the public currently views the political issue as far less salient
than others. At the top of the ladder stands cleaning up the establishment's
corruption, and after that come: rehabilitating the IDF and Israel's
deterrent capability, closing the economic gaps, and countering violence and
crime. After all those comes returning to negotiations with the
Palestinians. On the corruption issue, the overwhelming majority sees the
efforts to uproot it as essential to salvaging the state and rejects the
claim that these efforts are excessive. Comparatively speaking, the
prevailing view is that corruption is more widespread in Israel than in the
Western countries, though less so than among the Palestinian Authority.
Of the two main bodies that fight corruption-the media and the police-the
majority views the former as fulfilling its role well, with opinions divided
about the police; a small majority says its functioning is not satisfactory.
In the context of these two bodies, a large majority rejects President
Katsav's claim that the elites joined together to incriminate him because
they did not want him as president.
The outstanding finding of this poll, however, is the widespread view that
the current leadership of the country is incapable of successfully coping
with the challenges and dangers that it faces.
Those are the main conclusions of the Peace Index survey that was carried
out on 29-31 January 2007.
On the question of whether Israel should or should not get involved in any
way in the struggle between Hamas and supporters of Abu Mazen, 84% of the
Jewish interviewees answered that it should not get involved. Eleven percent
favor involvement and 5% do not know. As for how the internal Palestinian
struggle affects Israel, 48% think it is good for it while 38% see it is
bad. Interestingly, the structure of segmentation of the Israeli Arab public's
views is not different from that of the Jewish public: only a tiny minority
of 13% believe Israel should get involved in the events on the Palestinian
side whereas the overwhelming majority-some 80%-think it should not. Here,
however, a clear majority of 60% say the intra-Palestinian struggle is good
for Israel and only 26% say it is harmful to it (the rest have no clear
opinion).
As noted, when it comes to assessing the state of Israeli-Palestinian
relations there is no dominant position among the Jewish public. Only 35%
believe political contacts will be renewed; the more common, pessimistic
view of 42% is that relations will worsen, with an increase in Qassam fire
and attempted terror attacks. Twelve percent think the situation will not
change and 11% do not know. The Jewish public has a different forecast for
future relations with Syria; the prevailing view-37%-is the more optimistic
one that Israeli-Syrian political contacts will be renewed. Thirty percent
do not believe the situation will change, 16% expect war to break out, and
17% do not know. It appears, therefore, that the media reports about some
sort of contacts with Syria have to some extent percolated into the public's
outlook. And, although the widespread opposition to a full peace treaty with
Syria for a full retreat the Golan Heights continues, with 64% opposed, 15%
vacillating, and 19% in favor (3% have no clear position), it is lower than
last month when it reached 70%.
The Arab public's assessments about future relations with the Palestinians
and with Syria are more optimistic than those of the Jewish sector.
Forty-five percent expect negotiations with the Palestinians to be renewed,
while 37% foresee a worsening of relations. As for Syria, a higher rate than
among the Jews-54%-anticipates an imminent renewal of contacts, but 21% (vs.
only 16% among the Jews) think a war will break out and 13% say things will
stay the same.
These political questions, however, seem currently to have taken a backseat
in Israeli minds to the country's domestic problems. The interviewees were
asked which of a group of issues should now be at the top of Israeli society's
agenda and which should be in second place. The answers show that cleaning
up the ruling establishment's corruption and improper functioning is at the
top, with a weighted grade of 31.5 (out of 100). After that come
rehabilitating the IDF and Israel's deterrent capability (22.1), closing the
economic gaps (20.1), countering violence and crime (15.4), and achieving a
peace agreement with the Palestinians (10.8). Despite the current high
salience of the corruption issue, the public is, interestingly, not
completely preoccupied with it, instead also showing awareness of other
problems on Israeli society's agenda. Moreover, the public seems to
distinguish well between the urgency of uprooting the corruption and its
importance as an existential danger to the state. In a comparison between
the two issues-the security threat and the corruption-49% cited the former
as the greater existential danger to Israel, with only 31% giving the
corruption that status (16% think the two are equally dangerous and 4% do
not know). The Arab public gives first priority to achieving a peace treaty
with the Palestinians; not surprisingly, closing the economic gaps comes in
second and after that the corruption issue.
While recognizing the importance of other issues, the public seems most
disturbed by the severity and extent of the corruption, as evident from
several findings. To begin with, 49.5% think the recent revelations of
corruption do not stem mainly from greater efforts to expose it than in the
past-as 38% believe-but from the fact that the corruption is greater.
Forty-four percent view Israel's level of corruption as higher than in the
Western countries (35% think it is similar and only 6%, lower).
The majority (53%), however, regards the Palestinian Authority as having a
higher level of corruption (19.5% see it as similar and 13% as lower). Note
that for the Israeli Jewish public, however, the relevant context is the
West. The highest proportion of the Arab public, conversely-31%-thinks the
corruption in Israel is greater than in the Palestinian leadership, 27% that
it is lesser, and 24% that it is similar in extent.
Given this concern, it is not surprising that only a small minority (20.5%)
of the Jewish public accepts the claim that the efforts to purge the
corruption are excessive, whereas an overwhelming majority (72%) identifies
with the view that these efforts are necessary to salvage the state. In the
struggle against the corruption, the majority of the public (59%) thinks the
media plays its role moderately well or very well, with only 32% saying it
does so moderately poorly or very poorly. The police, however, are viewed
much less positively here: only 42% think it performs moderately well or
very well in exposing the leadership's corruption, whereas 49% say it
functions moderately poorly or very poorly in this regard. In any case, the
overwhelming majority (62% vs. 23%) rejects President Katsav's claim that
the elites banded together to incriminate him because they did not want him
as president. A segmentation of the answers by voting in the latest
elections shows that among voters for Shas, Torah Judaism, and Yisrael
Beiteinu the rate of those who believe Katsav is higher than the rate of
nonbelievers, whereas the majority of voters for all the rest of the parties
do not believe him. A segmentation of the answers by attributes of
education, income, and ethnic origin reveals a considerable majority in all
the subgroups for those who do not believe Katsav.
The influence of the recent revelations of corruption, and very possibly
also of the results of last summer's Lebanon war, is worryingly evident in
the public's pessimism about the current leadership's ability to cope with
all the challenges and dangers that Israel faces. Less than one-quarter
(24%) are moderately sure or completely sure that it is capable of
successfully coping with these challenges whereas 72% are moderately unsure
or not at all sure of this. Note that this lack of confidence is a majority
view in all sectors of Israeli society, including the voters for the parties
presently in power. The segmentation of views on this issue in the Arab
sector is similar, though a bit less pessimistic: 37% think the leadership
is capable of dealing with the problems and 57% believe the opposite (the
rest have no clear opinion).
Indexes:
General Oslo: 37.1; Oslo Jews: 33.2
General Negotiations: 50.4; Jews: 48.2
General Syria: 37.3; Jews: 32.2
The Peace Index project is conducted by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution at Tel
Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann. The
telephone interviews were conducted by the B. I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv
University on 29-31 January 2007 and included 607 interviewees who represent
the adult Jewish and Arab population in Israel (including the territories
and the kibbutzim). The sampling error for a sample of this size is 4.5%
Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann
There is broad agreement in the Israeli Jewish public that Israel should not
get involved in the present intra-Palestinian struggle. Views are more
divided, however, on what this struggle means for Israel, with a small
majority seeing it as beneficial.
Assessments also differ about the course of Israeli-Palestinian relations in
the coming year, with a slight majority saying the situation will worsen
rather than political contacts being renewed. As for the future of
Israeli-Syrian relations, here too there is no dominant view, but a slight
lead for the optimistic assessment that political negotiations will be
renewed rather than the situation staying the same, with only a small
minority seeing war as imminent.
However, the public currently views the political issue as far less salient
than others. At the top of the ladder stands cleaning up the establishment's
corruption, and after that come: rehabilitating the IDF and Israel's
deterrent capability, closing the economic gaps, and countering violence and
crime. After all those comes returning to negotiations with the
Palestinians. On the corruption issue, the overwhelming majority sees the
efforts to uproot it as essential to salvaging the state and rejects the
claim that these efforts are excessive. Comparatively speaking, the
prevailing view is that corruption is more widespread in Israel than in the
Western countries, though less so than among the Palestinian Authority.
Of the two main bodies that fight corruption-the media and the police-the
majority views the former as fulfilling its role well, with opinions divided
about the police; a small majority says its functioning is not satisfactory.
In the context of these two bodies, a large majority rejects President
Katsav's claim that the elites joined together to incriminate him because
they did not want him as president.
The outstanding finding of this poll, however, is the widespread view that
the current leadership of the country is incapable of successfully coping
with the challenges and dangers that it faces.
Those are the main conclusions of the Peace Index survey that was carried
out on 29-31 January 2007.
On the question of whether Israel should or should not get involved in any
way in the struggle between Hamas and supporters of Abu Mazen, 84% of the
Jewish interviewees answered that it should not get involved. Eleven percent
favor involvement and 5% do not know. As for how the internal Palestinian
struggle affects Israel, 48% think it is good for it while 38% see it is
bad. Interestingly, the structure of segmentation of the Israeli Arab public's
views is not different from that of the Jewish public: only a tiny minority
of 13% believe Israel should get involved in the events on the Palestinian
side whereas the overwhelming majority-some 80%-think it should not. Here,
however, a clear majority of 60% say the intra-Palestinian struggle is good
for Israel and only 26% say it is harmful to it (the rest have no clear
opinion).
As noted, when it comes to assessing the state of Israeli-Palestinian
relations there is no dominant position among the Jewish public. Only 35%
believe political contacts will be renewed; the more common, pessimistic
view of 42% is that relations will worsen, with an increase in Qassam fire
and attempted terror attacks. Twelve percent think the situation will not
change and 11% do not know. The Jewish public has a different forecast for
future relations with Syria; the prevailing view-37%-is the more optimistic
one that Israeli-Syrian political contacts will be renewed. Thirty percent
do not believe the situation will change, 16% expect war to break out, and
17% do not know. It appears, therefore, that the media reports about some
sort of contacts with Syria have to some extent percolated into the public's
outlook. And, although the widespread opposition to a full peace treaty with
Syria for a full retreat the Golan Heights continues, with 64% opposed, 15%
vacillating, and 19% in favor (3% have no clear position), it is lower than
last month when it reached 70%.
The Arab public's assessments about future relations with the Palestinians
and with Syria are more optimistic than those of the Jewish sector.
Forty-five percent expect negotiations with the Palestinians to be renewed,
while 37% foresee a worsening of relations. As for Syria, a higher rate than
among the Jews-54%-anticipates an imminent renewal of contacts, but 21% (vs.
only 16% among the Jews) think a war will break out and 13% say things will
stay the same.
These political questions, however, seem currently to have taken a backseat
in Israeli minds to the country's domestic problems. The interviewees were
asked which of a group of issues should now be at the top of Israeli society's
agenda and which should be in second place. The answers show that cleaning
up the ruling establishment's corruption and improper functioning is at the
top, with a weighted grade of 31.5 (out of 100). After that come
rehabilitating the IDF and Israel's deterrent capability (22.1), closing the
economic gaps (20.1), countering violence and crime (15.4), and achieving a
peace agreement with the Palestinians (10.8). Despite the current high
salience of the corruption issue, the public is, interestingly, not
completely preoccupied with it, instead also showing awareness of other
problems on Israeli society's agenda. Moreover, the public seems to
distinguish well between the urgency of uprooting the corruption and its
importance as an existential danger to the state. In a comparison between
the two issues-the security threat and the corruption-49% cited the former
as the greater existential danger to Israel, with only 31% giving the
corruption that status (16% think the two are equally dangerous and 4% do
not know). The Arab public gives first priority to achieving a peace treaty
with the Palestinians; not surprisingly, closing the economic gaps comes in
second and after that the corruption issue.
While recognizing the importance of other issues, the public seems most
disturbed by the severity and extent of the corruption, as evident from
several findings. To begin with, 49.5% think the recent revelations of
corruption do not stem mainly from greater efforts to expose it than in the
past-as 38% believe-but from the fact that the corruption is greater.
Forty-four percent view Israel's level of corruption as higher than in the
Western countries (35% think it is similar and only 6%, lower).
The majority (53%), however, regards the Palestinian Authority as having a
higher level of corruption (19.5% see it as similar and 13% as lower). Note
that for the Israeli Jewish public, however, the relevant context is the
West. The highest proportion of the Arab public, conversely-31%-thinks the
corruption in Israel is greater than in the Palestinian leadership, 27% that
it is lesser, and 24% that it is similar in extent.
Given this concern, it is not surprising that only a small minority (20.5%)
of the Jewish public accepts the claim that the efforts to purge the
corruption are excessive, whereas an overwhelming majority (72%) identifies
with the view that these efforts are necessary to salvage the state. In the
struggle against the corruption, the majority of the public (59%) thinks the
media plays its role moderately well or very well, with only 32% saying it
does so moderately poorly or very poorly. The police, however, are viewed
much less positively here: only 42% think it performs moderately well or
very well in exposing the leadership's corruption, whereas 49% say it
functions moderately poorly or very poorly in this regard. In any case, the
overwhelming majority (62% vs. 23%) rejects President Katsav's claim that
the elites banded together to incriminate him because they did not want him
as president. A segmentation of the answers by voting in the latest
elections shows that among voters for Shas, Torah Judaism, and Yisrael
Beiteinu the rate of those who believe Katsav is higher than the rate of
nonbelievers, whereas the majority of voters for all the rest of the parties
do not believe him. A segmentation of the answers by attributes of
education, income, and ethnic origin reveals a considerable majority in all
the subgroups for those who do not believe Katsav.
The influence of the recent revelations of corruption, and very possibly
also of the results of last summer's Lebanon war, is worryingly evident in
the public's pessimism about the current leadership's ability to cope with
all the challenges and dangers that Israel faces. Less than one-quarter
(24%) are moderately sure or completely sure that it is capable of
successfully coping with these challenges whereas 72% are moderately unsure
or not at all sure of this. Note that this lack of confidence is a majority
view in all sectors of Israeli society, including the voters for the parties
presently in power. The segmentation of views on this issue in the Arab
sector is similar, though a bit less pessimistic: 37% think the leadership
is capable of dealing with the problems and 57% believe the opposite (the
rest have no clear opinion).
Indexes:
General Oslo: 37.1; Oslo Jews: 33.2
General Negotiations: 50.4; Jews: 48.2
General Syria: 37.3; Jews: 32.2
The Peace Index project is conducted by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution at Tel
Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Yaar and Prof. Tamar Hermann. The
telephone interviews were conducted by the B. I. Cohen Institute of Tel Aviv
University on 29-31 January 2007 and included 607 interviewees who represent
the adult Jewish and Arab population in Israel (including the territories
and the kibbutzim). The sampling error for a sample of this size is 4.5%
posted by News Service at
9:07 AM
Bookmark this post:
Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors. Originally posted at http://zionism-israel.com/israel_news/2007/02/peace-index-poll-january-2007-israeli.html. Please do link to these articles, quote from them and forward them by email to friends with this notice. Other uses require written permission of the author.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home