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Friday, March 9, 2007

POLL: Kadima collapses, Likud, Labor, resurgent

Following the recent controversies over the Lebanon war, it seems that support for the Kadima party has collapsed. The retirees, who also disappointed their voters, will probably disappear as a party as well. The big beneficiaries are the Likud, which would get 33 seats, and Labor which could get as many as 28 mandates if led by Ami Ayalon. Ayalon has no experience in government. This is an advantage in some ways, as he does not have a legacy of blunders to deal with, unlike Benjamin Netanyahu of the Likud and Ehud Barak, both former Prime Ministers. Ayalon may be electable, but can he actually govern?  
Even in the best scenario for the left, it is unlikely that the Labor party could form a government without the Likud. All the smaller parties have more or dissolved into the Likud. Labor+Kadima+Meretz would have about 40 mandates at most according to the present scenario. They could not form a coalition even with the Arab parties, or alternatively, with Shas plus United Torah Judaism.
Different results will be obtained of course in a poll that forces people to choose, eliminating the "undecided" votes.
The numbers in parentheses for smaller parties must have some meaning, but it is not explained. Probably they refer to different numbers of mandates that would be garnered depending on who is in charge of the Labor party.

Poll:  Likud 33 Kadima 7-8 Yisrael Beiteinu 7 Labor 23-28
Dr. Aaron Lerner     Date: 9 March 2007

Telephone poll of a representative sample of 501 adult Israelis (including
Arab Israelis) carried out by Dahaf  for Yediot Ahronot the week of 9 March
2007 and published on 9 March 2007.

Knesset election vote expressed in mandates[current in brackets]. The actual
mandates in the current Knesset are in [brackets]

Likud 33 [12] Kadima 7 [29]  Labor headed by Ayalon 28 [19]
Likud 33 Kadima 8  Labor headed by Barak 23
Likud 35 Kadima 13  Labor headed by Peretz 17
07.0  [11] Yisrael Beiteinu
10.5  [12] Shas
10.5  [10] Arab parties
06.0  [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
05.0  [06] Yahadut Hatorah
01.0  [07] Retirees  (0-2)
05.5  [05] Meretz (4-7)
09.0   --   Undecided (8-10)

IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors. Originally posted at Please do link to these articles, quote from them and forward them by email to friends with this notice. Other uses require written permission of the author.


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