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Thursday, June 21, 2007

What is in a poll? Will Barak lose his shine?

Poll: Likud will win next elections  reads the headline. But the same polls predicted that Ami Ayalon would head the Labor party. A lot depends on what happens in the next few months. If Barak proves himself as defense minister, it will be quite different then if Israel suffers another setback as it did last summer.
If Israel suffers a military setback, Barak will lose his shine (="Barak" in Hebrew) as "Israel's most decorated soldier." If Barak manages to demonstrate competence, he will beat Benjamin Netanyahu, who is not trusted, and who will annoy the American government.
Ami Isseroff
Poll: Likud will win next elections

New opinion poll predicts Likud will win if elections held today with a
majority of 29 seats, followed by Labor with 18
YNET Published: 06.21.07, 10:01 / Israel News

Should Israel hold general elections today the Likud Party would emerge as the winner with 29 seats in parliament, followed by Labor with 18, a new poll has showed.

An opinion poll held before Ehud Barak's election as Labor leader predicted the left-leaning party would win 16 seats under the former prime minister's leadership.

The new poll also suggested that support for the Likud Party shrank from 30-34 to 29 seats after Barak's election as Labor head on June 12.

The ruling Kadima party is set to be the biggest loser if elections were held today as the poll predicts Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's party to win eight seats, a sharp drop from the 21 seats it currently holds.

Some 20 percent of respondents who voted for Kadima in last year's elections said they would shift allegiance to Likud and 10 percent to Labor, while a third said they remain undecided.

The dovish Meretz Party would drop from five to four seats, the poll found.

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