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Thursday, July 26, 2007

Poll shows Kadima could stay alive with Tzippi Livni

If Israel held elections today, with Ehud Olmert heading Kadima, the incumbent party would get 7 seats, while the Likud would get 32 seats in the Knesset. This might look like a big swing to the right among Israeli voters, but that doesn't seem to be quite true. If dovish Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni were at the head of Kadima, it would supposedly get 23 seats, while the Likud would just nose it out with 24. Kadima headed by Livni wins back 4 seats from Labor, 8 from the Likud and 3 from the disappointing pensioners party, and takes a seat from Yisrael Beiteinu as well. The power of this dovish candidate to attract right wing voters seems to be explained by an "anybody but Olmert" movement.
On the other hand, polls are one thing, and elections are often something else entirely. Shimon Peres was famous for winning all the polls and losing all the elections, while Ehud Barak seemed to lose all the polls and win all the elections. When push comes to shove, and there are actual elections, both Bibi Nethanyahu and Ehud Barak are sure to remind everyone of the consequences of having a Prime Minister who has no experience in defense and security matters. Barak is not going to let people forget that he is Israel's most decorated soldier and Nethanyahu won't let people forget his brother Yonni, killed in Entebbe, or his own army service.
Ami Isseroff

Poll:  Kadima with Olmert 7 with Livni 23
Dr. Aaron Lerner     Date: 26 July 2007

Telephone poll of a representative sample of 518 adult Israelis (including Arab Israelis) carried out by Shvakim Panorama for Israel Radio's Hakol Diburim (It's All Talk) on 24 July 2007

Election results if elections held today - expressed in mandate  The actual mandates in the current Knesset are in [brackets]

07 --- [29] Kadima headed by Olmert
--- 23 [29] Kadima headed by Livni
32 24 [12] Likud
25 21 [19] Labor
10 10 [12] Shas
10 09 [11] Yisrael Beiteinu
07 07 [09] Nat'l Union/NRP
07 07 [06] Yahadut Hatorah
05 05 [05] Meretz
04 04 [--]Gaydamak Party [Social Justice Party]
03 00 [07] Retirees
10 10 [10] Arab parties
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors. Originally posted at Please do link to these articles, quote from them and forward them by email to friends with this notice. Other uses require written permission of the author.


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