Is the Syrian war scare over?

This is one of those decisions that may be proven to be foolish in retrospect:

 

IDF moves large-scale training from Golan Heights to south
JPost.com staff and AP , THE JERUSALEM POST Aug. 29, 2007

The IDF has decided that war with Syria is unlikely and was moving training forces out of the Golan Heights after months of cross-border tension, security officials said Wednesday.

The decision followed months of growing tensions along the frontier and concerns that the escalation could result in war. Over the summer, media reports of impending war alternated with announcements by Syrian and Israeli leaders that they had no interest in hostilities.

The officials said Syria's military has now reduced its war readiness, but offered no details because the exact steps taken by the Syrians are classified.

Israeli troops scheduled to hold training operations in the Golan Heights would now be moved away from the border to the country's south to further reduce friction, the officials said, and the army's war-readiness status on the Israel-Syria border is now considered over.

Speculation that Syria might initiate a war on the Golan was rooted in concerns Syria had been emboldened by Hizbullah's apparent success in the Second Lebanon War.

The article is not accurate. Speculation that Syria might initiate a war on the Golan was rooted in the fact that Bashar Assad said he would start a war. If he said it, he probably meant it. Presumably he would time it for the maximum effect in wrecking any peace process that might be underway, perhaps in September or October. The steps that Syria may or may not have taken are irrelevant. The war, if it comes, would be started by a series of border incidents perpetrated by Syrian army soldiers masquerading as a guerilla force. These would escalate until they forced a retaliation by Israel. Syria would then fire rockets at Israel as the Hezbollah did, and the rest of the scenario is known.

 

Ami Isseroff