War this summer?

Waiting for a hot summer in Gaza is just one of many analyses that promise a full scale operation in Gaza after Israeli independence day celebrations are done.

 

Yaakov Katz explains:

 

The assessment in the defense establishment is that attacks against the crossings as well as along the border fence - like the one last week in which three Givati soldiers were killed - will continue and possibly escalate in the coming weeks.

 

Despite this assessment and calls within the IDF to move from a "defensive mode" of repelling Hamas from the border to an "offensive mode" - a widespread invasion into Gaza - defense officials admitted over the weekend that the chances of a large operation were slim to none for at least two months. This is mainly due to May's scheduled visit by US President George W. Bush. There are also the nationwide 60th anniversary celebrations.

 

After Bush leaves and the last of the fireworks are lit, Israel's hands will be untied. It will also already be the middle of the summer, which is a prime time for a war.

 

Probably however, the attacks happen because Hamas know they have Israel over a barrel, and that no response will be forthcoming. As soon as the festivities end and everyone goes home, expect that Hamas may be smart enough to quieten things down. Or not - you never can know with them.

 

Ami Isseroff