Israeli forecast: Higher proportion of Arabs in the future

This report mentions three different scenarios. Under one of them, not mentioning which one, one in four Israeli citizens will be an Arab in 2030, there will be 7.2 million Jews and 2.4 million "Arabs." It is not clear if or how this takes into account the non-Jewish citizens who are not Arabs - there are quite a few of these.

 

Ami Isseroff  

   

Forecast: Arabs to comprise 25% of population by 2030

In 22 years, one of every four citizens to be Arab, according to Central Bureau of Statistics

 

Yael Branovsky
Published:  03.25.08, 20:01 / Israel News

 

By 2030 Arabs will account for one out of every four citizens of Israel, according to a forecast published by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) on Tuesday.

 

The forecast featured three possible scenarios - high, medium, and low – based on different variables that may affect population growth such as death rate, immigration, and fertility. According to the low alternative, in 2030 Israel's population will be 9.6 million, and according to the high alternative – 10.6 million. The forecast was based on population estimates from late 2005.
 
According to CBS, the population's ageing process in Israel will intensify, and the relative portion of elderly citizens over age 65 is foreseen to constitute 14%, or 1.4 million people, as opposed to 10% in 2005, according to the middle alternative.
 
In contrast, the relative portion of 0-14 year-old citizens is expected to decrease from 28% to 25%, though their numbers should increase from two million to 2.5 million.

 

According to the forecast, the Jewish population is expected to comprise 7.2 million people, up from from the 5.3 million counted in 2005. However, in terms of overall percentage this number represents 4% decrease.
 
  
Meanwhile, the Arab population is expected to number 2.4 million people in 2030, an increase from 1.4 million in 2005.