Polls: Likud ahead, may be fading a bit

It is still too early to assess the impact of the Likud primaries, which elected a large number of extremists, on the Israeli vote. The numbers are also skewed because of the absence of Arabs from the polls. Nonetheless, there are some hints that the  Likud advantage may be fading a bit. It is particularly interesting that the new Religious national party has less support than its two constiuents did. The bottom line of both polls however, is that the Likud part still has a big lead and if elections were held today, the right would form the next government. The headline "National-Religious bloc" is deceptive. The Ultraorthodox parties can and have formed coalitions with the left.

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Two polls: Likud ahead of Kadima by 7 - 9 seats, National-Religious bloc
64-65 seats
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA  10 December 2008

Column # 1 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 488 adult Israeli Jews (the Arabs were not polled because it is a Moslem holiday - their results were assumed to be unchanged from previous poll)  carried out by Dialog poll under the supervision of Prof. Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University on 9 December 2009 - the day after the primaries - and published
in Haaretz on 10 December

Column # 2 Telephone poll of a representative sample of 503 adult Israelis  (including Israeli Arabs)  carried out by Dahaf on 9 December 2009 - the day  after the Likud primaries - and published Yediot Ahronot on 10 December.

Results expressed in Knesset seats.  Current Knesset in [brackets]

#1  #2
27 24  [29] Kadima headed by Livni
12 11  [19] Labor
36 31  [12] Likud
09 11  [12] Shas
09 10  [11] Yisrael Beteinu
04 06  [09] "Jewish Home" (previously Nat'l Union/NRP)
06 07  [06] Yahadut Hatorah
06 07  [05] Meretz
00 03  [00] Green Party
00 00  [00] Social Justice (Gaydamak Party)
00 00  [07] Retirees Party
11 10  [10] Arab parties
00 00  [00] Meimad
00 00  [00] Strong Israel (Efraim Sneh)
00 00  [00] Hatikvah (Eldad)

 

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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis