What happens to Obama if Iran goes nuclear?

Ari Shavit and Barry Rubin are convinced that Iran gets "the" bomb due to US incompetence, Barack Obama will be out of a job. With respect, it doesn't seem likely that any US president would lose an election over the issue of Iran getting nuclear weapons. Communist China and USSR got nuclear weapons. It didn't cause anyone to lose an election. Of course if Iran were to use the bomb, or use it to threaten the US or its direct interests, that might be a different matter. In the summer of 2006, 23% of US voters had never heard that there was a problem with Iranian nuclear development. It is not likely that this percentage has diminished that much. Likewise, the bomb is not the only problem. It is only a gadget - a means to an end. The real problem is that Iran has been showing great inegnuity and resourcefulness in subversion in Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt and Gaza, and that is only the beginning.

I do not think Ari Shavit is too pessimistic. He may be pushing the timetable, but without tough sanctions and perhaps an embargo, it is likely that Iran will have a nuclear weapon by 2012. 2010 is a bit early.

Ami Isseroff

Obama's Very Unhappy Future in the Middle East

Barry Rubin

Ari Shavit of Haaretz has written an important article that should be read widely. I'll also say I think he is too pessimistic but makes a hugely significant point.

The title tells it all: Obama in 2012, after he fails to deal with Iran

Briefly, he sketches out a near-term future based on President Barack Obama's current regional policy. Projecting "back" from the end of Obama's first term, Shavit writes that Iran obtained some nuclear weapons but had not (so far) used them.

I've also talked about what Iran having nuclear weapons means in terms of disaster for the region and world. It seems impossible to get governments, media, and analysts to talk about all these aspects aside from the potential use of this weapon against Israel. Failure to do so will be disastrous.

Shavit dramatizes the story with specifics: Smaller Gulf Arab states become virtual protectorates of Iran, Saudi Arabia buys nuclear weapons, Egypt is radicalized, Hizballah takes control of Beirut, Israel-Palestinian violence erupts. The price of oil surges upwards, Afghanistan goes up in flames, and Pakistan collapses.

What went wrong? "In the summer of 2009, the president had to make the most courageous decision of his life: to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. If Obama had decided…to impose a political-economic siege on Tehran, he would have changed the course of history [and]…prevented regional chaos, a worldwide nuclear arms race and an American decline."

I know that this will seem exaggerated to many people. But, then, they don't know the Middle East well enough.

This does not mean an attack on Iran is something to be urged, especially at present. It would be better to have a strong international effort using sanctions and other pressures. But it might be too late for that.  More: Obama's Very Unhappy Future in the Middle East