The Palestinian state is coming - and Israel is not ready.

Below is an excerpt of an article by Ben Caspit that appeared in Maariv. The translation is provided by American Task Force for Palestine. Never mind if you agree or disagree with Caspit's assessment of Benjamin Netanyahu or Ehud Barak. Focus on the main point: Palestinian Prime Minister Salem Fayyad is systematically building support for a Palestinian state in all of the West Bank and Gaza. His plan was announced last August: Palestine: Ending the Occupation, Establishing the State. The Israeli government took no notice then, and is taking no notice now. It is scoffing, and is doing nothing to either meet this plan or counter it. The Israeli government is acting as if nothing is happening. Fayyad is not just building institutions for a state, as the Israeli government wants to delude itself into thinking. He is quite explicit: He is building a state.

 

In two years, if all goes according to his plan, the Palestinians will unilaterally declare a Palestinian State on all the territory of the West Bank including "East Jerusalem."  Ariel, Hebron, Gush Etzion, French Hill, Latrun and Ramat Eshkol, the Jewish quarter of the Old City of Jerusalem, the Hebrew University on Mount Scopus, Har Choma, Gilo, the Mt Olives cemetery, will all be claimed by this state. The state and the claims will have the explicit backing of the entire Arab world, most or all non-Arab Muslim states, most Latin American and African states. They will have at least the passive acquiescence of the United States and most  European states. They will be backed by the decisions of the Hague International Court of Justice, which ruled that the land of the West Bank is occupied territory. That is not all. The state will push for "Right of Return" for Palestinian refugees. There is a very real possibility that in two years there will be a Palestinian state in the West Bank: A state hostile to Israel, a state that has not signed a peace treaty with Israel,  a state that has the support of most of the world, a state that may or may not be intent on destruction of Israel.  

 

The Hamas, originally skeptical of Fayyad's plan, is already making the preliminary noises that will most likely lead to its rejoining the Palestinian government, because they would not want to miss out on the chance of governing a Palestinian state. They will get on board.

 

You may be justly skeptical. After all, the Palestinians have declared states in the past - in 1948, they declared two states in fact. A Palestinian Declaration of Independence was issued in 1988 and nothing came of it. But this time it is very different.

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Israel has no plan whatever to deal with a very real possibility that is taking shape before our eyes. Even if the new Palestinian state is as peaceful as Switzerland or Finland, it will still bring about a major change in the geopolitical reality of Israel - and there is almost no likelihood that this new state will be anything like Switzerland or Finland.

 

The unilaterally declared Palestinian state would of course be a blatant violation of the Oslo accords and the Oslo process, but those were dead quite a while ago. Barring some very unforeseen and unforeseeable developments, Israel could destroy this new state by force, because the United States and the EU would not let it do so.

 

What would the United States do if the Palestinian state brought its claims, including Right of Return for Palestinian refugees to the UN Security Council? Would it veto a resolution under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, a resolution that would be international law backed by enforcement mechanisms, that would grant the Palestinians their demands? And what could Israel do if this Palestinian state sent its "police" - trained by the United States and backed by U.S. soldiers - to take over East Jerusalem? Would  Israel send the IDF to fight these "police" and perhaps to fight Jim Jones's American West Bank "advisers?" How would the Americans react?

 

Remember that not a single country in the world recognizes Israel's claims in East Jerusalem, and certainly no country recognizes Israel's claims in the West Bank.

 

And what if, as is not unlikely, Fayyad and the Palestinian government are overthrown in a coup, thrown down from the roofs of buildings, as happened in Gaza, and the current "moderate" Palestinian government is replaced by a Hamas run government? It is not impossible. Yet no Israeli official seems to have paid much attention to the developing possibility of a Palestinian state.

 

 

Ami Isseroff

 

 

 

Ben Caspit
Ma'ariv (Opinion)
February 2, 2010 - 12:00am

[The title refers to a journal entry by Theodor Herzl in 1897, "In Basel I founded the Jewish state"] Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad came to Herzliya on Tuesday. Thinking that he would be participating in a panel discussion, he did not prepare a speech. Suddenly he found himself making the Palestinian "Herzliya speech." Fayyad did not become confused. He is no sucker. In fluent if nearly unintelligible English (Fayyad has a heavy accent), he laid out his doctrine: a Palestinian state within two years. On all the territory. Including East Jerusalem. That is all. In Herzliya, several meters from where the large statue of the visionary of the Jewish state overlooks the coastal highway, Fayyad founded Palestine.

Several years ago, when he appeared in the skies of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, no one took him seriously. But Fayyad, a gray, stubborn man, worked seriously, against all the chances and all the gangs, and succeeded. Today, he is seen as the most significant threat against the continuation of the current situation. His plan was presented and gathered momentum, the Americans see him as a kind of messiah, the Europeans pin their hope on him, and most important: the situation on the ground has changed dramatically. In two years, he hopes, the reforms will be completed and he will declare a state on the 1967 borders.

Because there is consensus throughout the world on the two-state solution, and also regarding the Green Line, Israel is liable to find itself facing a Security Council decision that adopts the Palestinian declaration, and without an American veto. What will we do then?

Between Two Leaders

The next day, the Israeli prime minister came to Herzliya. His speech was also good. After all, he knows how to give speeches (that very morning, in the Knesset, he gave a wonderful speech to Berlusconi). Bibi talked about education and about vision, and almost did not mention diplomatic trifles, except for the news that there may be, perhaps, a chance that within a month, or two, or maybe three, it may be possible, under certain conditions, to resume negotiations. And it may be that this actually refers to indirect negotiations with American mediation. Applause. Indeed, an historical accomplishment.

The main difference between Fayyad and Netanyahu, except for the fact that one has a state and the other still does not, is that Fayyad knows exactly what he wants. We see from the way Netanyahu handles things that he does not. All Bibi wants is to keep on surviving. To get to the weekend in peace, without some new scandal. He sells Shimon Peres one vision while marketing another to Benny, Bugi and Ruby. With the Americans he is here, and with the settlers he is there. He uproots with one hand and plants with the other. There is no goal, no management, no courage to do one thing or the other.

By definition, Netanyahu is the leader of the right wing. This definition holds until election day. The next morning, he is already a centrist. He glances leftward, feels his way, but is afraid. The feeling is that all that he wants is for nothing to happen. That he be left in peace. The thing is that quiet is detestable [a phrase from the anthem composed by Revisionist Zionist Vladimir Jabotinsky]. Anyone who thinks that the vacuum will remain empty is mistaken. Salam Fayyad is the one who is proving that now. He came bravely to Herzliya despite the ridiculous internal criticism of the Palestinians who screamed that the conference was for the sake of Israel's strength and security. Fayyad knows that this is an open academic symposium, and during it he made, in English, the same statements that he makes in Arabic in Ramallah and in Nablus. He speaks in only one language, Fayyad. With everyone, in every place. The exact opposite of Netanyahu.

The Coalition Is the Main Thing

Near the courageous one (Fayyad) and the fearful one (Netanyahu) stands another player-namely, the commentator. He serves as the defense minister of the State of Israel. He gives a speech here, speaks there, cautions and warns. Not to divide the land, Barak warns, is an existential threat. Not reaching a peace agreement with Syria, he warns, means all-out war. And afterwards, we will return to the negotiating table and talk about the same things, the same conditions, exactly.

The question is asked: for what purpose is Barak there? In any case, he is incapable of producing anything regarding the Palestinian question or even regarding the Syrian question, which is so critical. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said two days ago that the next war will reach all the cities of Israel. He is right. No more dull sounds of explosions from the edge of the Golan Heights. All of Israel will be barraged with heavy and precise rockets. After Muallem, President Assad spoke in his own voice, called Israel the bully of the region and warned of war. History teaches us that every time the leaders of the Arab countries have warned us of war, it broke out. Every time there was a stalemate, an explosion followed. So why wait for the explosion? The Netanyahu government is doing nothing, marking time.

Incidentally, this is in the best case. There is always good old Avigdor Lieberman, who will breathe life into the hissing embers and light a big fire, as he did yesterday with the follow-up about Assad: "If war breaks out, your family will fall from power," Lieberman warned loudly. Wow. What a man. And if Assad's family falls from power, Mr. Yvet, what will happen? Could it be that Syria will also become (after Iraq) an extremist Islamic state? Could it be that the Iranians will take it over? Might the Shiites penetrate even more deeply? Might it be that we will miss Assad, like we miss many things today that we invested infinite energy to get rid of?